Audience Estimation
Size your market before you spend. Use AI to forecast reach, compare regions, and brief creatives with confidence.
Why Audience Estimation?
Budget with Confidence
Estimate potential reach up front to align budgets with realistic scale. Avoid over- or under-spending by understanding the size of your best-fit audience.
Prioritize Markets
Compare regions and demographics quickly. Focus effort where your brand can reach the most qualified people for the same budget.
Brief Creatives Better
Use clear audience insights to guide messaging and angles, so creative testing starts on second base instead of from scratch.
What You Can Do
Size Segments
- • Estimate audience size by country, region, or city
- • Compare reach for different age ranges and devices
- • Validate niche interests are big enough to test
Model Scenarios
- • Forecast reach for multiple targeting combinations
- • Create tiers: core, expansion, and moonshot audiences
- • Pick the right mix for phase 1 vs. later iterations
Turn Insights into Action
- • Share a clean spec with your media buyer or AI agent
- • Align budget with reachable audience size
- • Inform creative briefs with audience language cues
Guided Workflow
1) Define the business outcome (the "X")
Start with the goal, not the tool. For example: launch in a new region, hit a monthly revenue target, reduce CPA, or validate a new persona. Audience estimation helps you decide if the potential reach supports the outcome.
Prompt: "I want to achieve X in Y timeframe. Suggest 3 audience strategies and what reach each might deliver, including pros/cons."
2) Draft your core segments
Outline 2–4 segments you believe will work: a core demo, an interest stack, a competitor affinity, or a behavior-based group. Stay hypothesis-driven.
Prompt: "Given [brand/product], propose 3–4 audience segments: core demo, interest stack, and competitor affinity. Include what they care about and sample ad angles."
3) Estimate reach for each segment
Get indicative reach numbers to sense-check whether a segment is testable and how to allocate budget across them.
Prompt: "Estimate audience size for Segment A (age 25–55) in [countries/regions]. Compare mobile vs. desktop. Flag if the segment is too narrow or overly broad."
4) Prioritize markets and phases
Choose where to start and what to defer. Use reach to build a phased plan: core markets now, expansion markets later.
Prompt: "Based on estimated reach for my segments, recommend a phase 1 plan (core + expansion) and a phase 2 plan (wider tests). Include simple budget splits."
5) Generate a clean targeting spec
When you are ready, turn the selected segments into a structured spec, including interest IDs and geo settings, ready to launch.
Prompt: "Create a targeting spec for Segment A with [countries], [age range], and [device]. Include interest IDs and a clear, reusable JSON structure."
From Core Persona to Expansion
Outdoor Living Buyers
Home projects, backyard upgrades, grilling, and homeowners
Home Improvement
ID 60032&641324b
37.8M (US 25-55)
Grilling
ID 6003325965709
26.9M (US 25-55)
United Kingdom
29.6M (25-55)
Germany
23.7M (25-55)
Canada
18.05M (25-55)
Australia
12.3M (25-55)
Phase 1
Test core interests in US homeowners
Phase 2
Geographic rollout using winning angles
Budget Guidance (Example)
- Phase 1: 70% core (Home Improvement + Grilling), 30% exploration
- Phase 2: Shift budget into top-performing geos
Numbers indicative; refine with final market list and creative strategy.
Practical Prompts
Discover interests and behaviors
"Find interests and behaviors for people in [market] who are actively researching [category/problem]. Return 15–25 high-signal options and include Meta interest IDs."
Estimate by region
"Estimate audience size for ages [X–Y] in [country/region] for interests A/B/C. Show both country-level and region-level estimates, and highlight top 3 markets."
Compare scenarios
"Compare estimated reach for Scenario A (broad demo), Scenario B (interest stack 1), and Scenario C (interest stack 2). Recommend where to start and why."
Validate feasibility
"Is this audience too small to test with a daily budget of [$X]? Suggest ways to responsibly broaden without losing intent."
When to use Estimation vs Targeting
Estimation helps plan budgets and markets; targeting executes with precise selections. Estimate first to choose where to play, then target to win the auction efficiently.
Use Audience Estimation when…
- • You need market sizing and priority order
- • You’re sanity-checking whether segments are testable
- • You’re modeling phase 1 vs. phase 2 rollout
Use Audience Targeting when…
- • You’re selecting interest/behavior IDs for ad sets
- • You’re generating the final targeting JSON
- • You’re iterating from performance back to new variants
Related Guides
Turn audience estimates into a phased launch plan.
Allocate spend based on reachable market size.
Use insights to brief winning messages and angles.